Who is the favourite in Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government??
National + ACT + NZF is the current favourite at 33 %, ahead of 17 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
What do these odds actually mean?
Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
How often do these odds update?
Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.