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Free, no-jargon guides to reading prediction markets like a researcher. New here? Start at the top and work down.
A prediction market turns a question about the future into a tradable price. This guide explains what you're actually looking at — no jargon, no hype.
Read guidePrediction market odds look cryptic until you know the one conversion. After that, every price on the board tells you a story.
Read guide"Smart money" is the term for traders who are consistently right. In prediction markets, their positions are public — if you know where to look.
Read guidePolymarket and Kalshi are the two biggest prediction market venues — and the gaps between their prices are a research signal in themselves.
Read guideMost early losses come from a handful of avoidable mistakes. Learn to spot them and you're ahead of most of the crowd.
Read guideYou don't need capital or a wallet to start learning. Here's a sane, low-risk path from zero to reading markets like a researcher.
Read guideThe short answer changed recently, and most guides online are still out of date. Here's where things actually stand — with the primary sources so you can check for yourself.
Read guidePolymarket's fee model looks strange next to a sportsbook's, and that difference is the entire story. Here's what you pay and how it compares.
Read guideBoth let you put money on a game. Almost everything underneath is different — including who you are trading against and whether you can get out.
Read guideFour platforms dominate the conversation and they are not competing for the same person. Here's what separates them.
Read guideTwo things are clear: the profits are taxable, and not receiving a form does not change that. Almost everything else is genuinely unsettled — here's an honest map.
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