Election nominees, leadership races and confirmation fights are the classic prediction market: a crowded field, one winner, and a price on each name that moves the moment news breaks. The percentages below are what traders are actually paying — a candidate at 40 % means real money says they win roughly two times in five.
Events where the outcomes build on each other rather than compete — cumulative odds by deadline or by threshold.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.