What do these cumulative odds mean?

Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.

What is the second bar?

It is the difference between one step and the next — the market's implied chance of landing in that band specifically, rather than anywhere at or beyond it.

How often do these odds update?

Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31? — odds by threshold

Cumulative probability across 10 thresholds · $49.7K traded · updated 6 hr. ago

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Each row is a cumulative probability: the chance of reaching that point or beyond. The second bar is the market's implied chance of landing in that step alone.

Rising to

ThresholdChanceIn this step24hVolume7d

Falling to

ThresholdChanceIn this step24hVolume7d

Frequently asked questions

What do these cumulative odds mean?: Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
What is the second bar?: It is the difference between one step and the next — the market's implied chance of landing in that band specifically, rather than anywhere at or beyond it.
How often do these odds update?: Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

How to read the odds

Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.

Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31? — odds by threshold

Rising to

Falling to

Frequently asked questions

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