Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31? Odds & Probabilities · Market Guy
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31? — odds by threshold
Cumulative probability across 3 thresholds · $89.9K traded · updated 19 hr. ago
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Each row is a cumulative probability. The prices are currently not consistent enough across steps to break them into per-step chances, so only the cumulative view is shown.
Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
How often do these odds update?
Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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