Next Claude Sonnet released by...? — odds by date

Frequently asked questions

What do these cumulative odds mean?

Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.

What is the second bar?

It is the difference between one step and the next — the market's implied chance of landing in that band specifically, rather than anywhere at or beyond it.

How often do these odds update?

Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

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