← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 2 wk. ago
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Other
7 %
chance
▼ −50.5%24h▼ −16.0%1W
Yes 7¢No 94¢
Total volume
$49.5K
24h vol.
$45.2K
1w vol.
$46.5K
1m vol.
$46.6K
Liquidity
$28.5K
Bid / Ask
6¢ / 7¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
Apr 21, 2026
End date
Sep 30, 2026
ends in 1 mo.
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Bids (buy)Size
6¢$6,991
5¢$4,290
4¢$7,016
3¢$2,940
2¢$6,039
1¢$11,765
Asks (sell)Size
7¢$2,802
8¢$3,051
9¢$7,617
10¢$533
15¢$500
18¢$11
25¢$780
26¢$18
33¢$163
34¢$10
Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
uses 1 credit
Recent trades (50)
Buys 64%Sells 36%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 71 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 71 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 25 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 25 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 126 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 126 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 0 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 0 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 130 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 130 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 329 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 329 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 200 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 104 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 44 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 52 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 83 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 83 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 16 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 16 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 14 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 200 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 135 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 8 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 57 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 1,060 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 260 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 200 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 600 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 11 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 703 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 84 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 10 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.