How to read resolution rules
More correct forecasts are lost to wording than to bad analysis. Here is what to look for, in the order it matters.
Who decides, and from what document
The first thing to find is the named source: the agency, exchange, statistical release or official announcement that settles the market. A market that names one is a market you can research; a market that says the outcome will be determined by credible reporting is asking you to trust a judgement call.
The source also sets the clock. A result reported on the night can take days to certify, and a market settling on certification is a longer bet than a market settling on the count.
No named source is not a detail. It is the risk.
Touch or terminal
For anything with a number in it, find out whether the level has to be reached at any point before the deadline or has to hold at the deadline. These are very different probabilities - a price that only has to touch a level is meaningfully more likely to get there than one that has to close above it.
The wording is usually the only clue. Phrases like reaches, hits or at any time point to a touch; closes above, at the end of, or on a named date point to a terminal reading.
First print or revised
Official statistics get revised. If a market settles on an inflation number or a jobs figure, it matters whether the initial release or the corrected one counts, because they routinely differ by enough to flip a threshold.
Most markets use the first print, and most people never check. It is one line in the rules and it decides the payout.
What counts as the event
Real events are messier than market titles. A ceasefire can be partial, a resignation can be announced but not effective, a merger can be agreed but not closed, a law can pass one chamber. Good rules define which of those states counts.
When the rules do not, you are holding ambiguity risk: the possibility that you read the world correctly and still lose because the wording did not anticipate the shape the event took.
- Does an announcement count, or only the completed act?
- Does a partial or temporary version count?
- Who confirms it, and by when must they confirm it?
- What happens if the deciding source stops publishing?
Read the edge cases before the base case
The base case rarely needs rules. Spend your reading on the strange paths: a tie, a delay past the deadline, a cancelled event, a source that changes methodology. Those are where markets are actually contested.
If you cannot tell how an edge case resolves after reading the rules twice, treat that uncertainty as part of the price. It is a cost, and it is a reason to want a wider margin than the raw probability suggests.
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See what settles a real market
Every market page shows the rules and the resolution source alongside the live price.
Open live marketsFrequently asked questions
- What is a resolution source?
- The named authority whose publication decides the outcome - a statistical agency, an exchange settlement price, an official announcement. It is the first thing to look for and the most common thing missing from a poorly written market.
- What is the difference between touch and terminal resolution?
- A touch market resolves YES if the level is reached at any point before the deadline; a terminal market only if it holds at the deadline. Touch is significantly more likely, and the wording of the title is often the only indication which one applies.
- What happens if a market is genuinely ambiguous?
- It goes to whatever dispute mechanism the venue operates, which can take time and does not always produce the answer that feels obvious. That possibility is a real cost and should widen the margin you demand before trading.
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Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.